Emptying the Notebook: Threes and Losing
Ah, rats. Turns out I didn't make the Olympic roster.
- Well, Angel Reese is doing just fine.
- Dearica Hamby hasn’t slowed down.
- Kahleah Copper is still on fire in Phoenix.
- So is Kayla McBride.
- Jewell Loyd is steadily building quite the stat portfolio.
- As has her teammate, Nneka Ogwumike.
Alright, let’s get on with it already.
Threes
As I’m typing this, Sabrina Ionescu has already knocked down a couple of threes in the first seven minutes of the New York Liberty game against the Washington Mystics.
It’s just a day after she became the fastest player in WNBA history to get to 300 made threes, and she’s showing no signs of slowing down.
One thing that fascinates me about Sabrina’s rise to prominence as a knock-down three-point shooter is that the start of her career didn’t exactly portend that. Shooting low-to-mid-30% from three on 5-to-7 attempts per game over her first three seasons meant she wasn’t even close to fastest to 100 made threes.
| Rank | Player | Num Games to 100 3PM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhyne Howard | 40 |
| 2 | Cynthia Cooper | 41 |
| 3 | Ruthie Bolton | 43 |
| 4 | Crystal Robinson | 44 |
| ... | ... | |
| 8 | Sabrina Ionescu | 51 |
However, she ramped up considerably last season, making 128 threes in just 36 games (shooting 44.8% on 7.9 attempts per game). That acceleration got her up to 2nd-fastest to 200 made threes, getting there in 86 games compared to Katie Smith’s 81. (Rhyne Howard can jump in there between them if she makes a three in her next few games.)
Now, back in 2024, where Ionescu is the fastest all-time to 300 made threes, she seems to have slowed back down to her pre-2023 marks from beyond the three-point line. She’s still attempting a considerable 7.3 threes per game, but she’s making just under a third of them. Where she made 128 in 36 games last year, she’s on pace for just 87 in 36 games this year.
Her average is down, impacted most by having many fewer high-percentage nights, though her floor is just barely lower than last season.
Which is the real Sabrina? Well, I guess both. I don’t think she has body-swapped with anyone, though that would be some witchy magic befitting her first name.
So, if you’re among the group that predict Caitlin Clark’s logo threes are going to propel her to taking over Sabrina’s spot as fastest to 300 in a few years, what should be clear here is early returns really seem to mean so little.
Of the four players who were fastest to 100 made threes (Howard, Cooper, Bolton, Robinson), only Howard still has a chance to be top-5 fastest to 200.
Caitlin hasn’t played much yet, so if it’s unclear what Sabrina’s true “average” is, of course there’s no telling where Caitlin will land in all of this. As of today, she is third-fastest to 30 made threes behind her teammate Kelsey Mitchell (9) and one of the league’s first long-distance sharp-shooters, Ruthie Bolton (8), but I’m not drawing any conclusions from that.
| Rank | Player | Num Games to 30 3PM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ruthie Bolton | 8 |
| 2 | Kelsey Mitchell | 9 |
| 3 | Caitlin Clark | 12 |
The players of the 2020s are certainly buoyed by the movement toward three-point shooting. The 2024 leaguewide three-point rate (percentage of field goal attempts which are from three) is sitting at 33.5%, compared to 21.2% just a decade ago in 2014.
Is the WNBA on a trajectory toward the near-40% attempts from three the NBA shoots, or has the current generation reached its level?
Guess we’ll just have to keep watching.
Losing
The Washington Mystics (0-11) are off to the franchise’s worst start and the 4th-worst start in WNBA history.
| Team | Num Losses to Start Season |
|---|---|
| 2008 Atlanta Dream | 17 |
| 2017 San Antonio Stars | 14 |
| 2002 Detroit Shock | 13 |
| 2024 Washington Mystics | 11 (and counting) |
Having Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin out for extended time amid what was already a projected rebuild makes for a situation just like this, where a lower-tier team settles to the bottom.
As I mentioned before, I’m writing this while the Liberty and Mystics are playing (currently tied 45-all at halftime), so there’s a chance that streak comes to an end today. Regardless, I just want to touch on what the rewards can look like when you lose historically (and hold on to your assets):
- Those 2008 Dream finished 4-30 (worst in the league), won the No. 1 pick in the 2009 WNBA Draft, selected Angel McCoughtry, and were in the WNBA Finals by 2010 (and 2011 and 2013).
- Those 2017 Stars finished 8-26 (worst in the league), won the No. 1 pick in the 2018 WNBA Draft, selected A’ja Wilson, and were in the WNBA Finals just two years later (after another down season as the Las Vegas Aces which netted them Jackie Young) and again the past two seasons, winning the last two titles.
- Those 2002 Shock finished 9-23 (worst in the league), and while they were unlucky in the Draft Lottery and fell to third, Bill Laimbeer got the last laugh as they selected Cheryl Ford, the eventual Rookie of the Year. Not only did the Shock get back to the Playoffs in 2003, they completed the worst-to-first turnaround, winning the franchise’s first of three WNBA titles.
Not only do the Mystics still have ownership of their 2025 first-round pick, they also have the Dream’s first-round pick (via the Allisha Gray and Stephanie Soares pair of trades), so they’re currently looking at something around a lottery pick and a mid-first-rounder.
With the competition level rising and more teams to contend with over the next couple of years, a turnaround may be getting more difficult, but, uh, keep your eyes on the prize, Thibaults.
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