How would the Commissioner's Cup play out in past years?
The 25th season of the WNBA officially tips off tonight, and just in time for that, the league dropped some big news on Wednesday, including the details on the first season of its new "Commissioner's Cup" in-season competition. The season-within-the-season concept was introduced last year but put off when the original 36-game regular season schedule was scrapped to work in a 22-game season in Bradenton amid the pandemic.
The rules ultimately boil down to this: each WNBA team's first home game and first away game against each of their five conference opponents count as "cup games," ultimately resulting in a 10-game record from which the top Eastern Conference team and top Western Conference team will face off in the Commissioner's Cup Championship Game on August 12, just after the Olympic break but a few days before regular season games are scheduled to resume.
Every cup game is marked on the Across the Timeline WNBA game lists: both graphical and traditional, and you can filter the schedule down to the cup games only.
Personally, just for the weirdness of it all, I'm rooting for the Seattle Storm to win the West and the Chicago Sky to win the East, only because they would play the Commissioner's Cup Championship Game on August 12 only to have to play again as the first regular season back post-Olympic break on August 15.
That said, before the season tips off, I wanted to take a look back at recent seasons to see how a Commissioner's Cup format might have played out. This is based on their actual results from each of these years, extracting which games would have counted as "cup games" based on the announced rules.
Note: I've yet to see a full run-down of the tiebreak procedure for Commissioner's Cup records, if there is one, so I'm using the typical league tie-breaking procedure where needed for teams tied at the top of either conference.
2016-2019
I'm focusing mostly on the seasons from 2016 to 2019, when the WNBA played a full, more balanced schedule, rather than leaning as heavily toward intra-conference matchups as it did in the years prior when the playoffs were still conference-based. These seasons are more in line with how the 2021 season is set up.
2016
Eastern Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Liberty | 8 - 2 | 0.800 |
| 2 | Chicago Sky | 6 - 4 | 0.600 |
| Washington Mystics | 6 - 4 | 0.600 | |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream | 5 - 5 | 0.500 |
| 5 | Indiana Fever | 3 - 7 | 0.300 |
| 6 | Connecticut Sun | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
Western Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | 9 - 1 | 0.900 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Sparks | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | Dallas Wings | 6 - 4 | 0.600 |
| 4 | Seattle Storm | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| 5 | Phoenix Mercury | 3 - 7 | 0.300 |
| 6 | San Antonio Stars | 1 - 9 | 0.100 |
Commissioner's Cup Championship Game: Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty (Lynx won the regular season series 2-1)
The Liberty were upset by the Phoenix Mercury in the Second Round of the playoffs that year, missing out on a chance to face the Lynx in the Semifinals, so it's interesting to think these two teams could have faced off for the Commissioner's Cup prize.
2017
Eastern Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Mystics | 8 - 2 | 0.800 |
| 2 | Connecticut Sun | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | New York Liberty | 5 - 5 | 0.500 |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| 5 | Indiana Fever | 3 - 7 | 0.300 |
| Chicago Sky | 3 - 7 | 0.300 |
Western Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | 9 - 1 | 0.900 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Sparks | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | Seattle Storm | 6 - 4 | 0.600 |
| 4 | Phoenix Mercury | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| Dallas Wings | 4 - 6 | 0.400 | |
| 6 | San Antonio Stars | 0 - 10 | 0.000 |
Commissioner's Cup Championship Game: Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics (Lynx won the regular season series 3-0)
The Lynx and Mystics also met up in the WNBA Semifinals that year, where the Lynx swept the Mystics 3-0.
2018
Eastern Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Dream | 8 - 2 | 0.800 |
| 2 | Washington Mystics | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | Connecticut Sun | 6 - 4 | 0.600 |
| 4 | New York Liberty | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| 5 | Chicago Sky | 3 - 7 | 0.300 |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
Western Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Storm | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 2 | Phoenix Mercury | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Sparks | 5 - 5 | 0.500 |
| Minnesota Lynx | 5 - 5 | 0.500 | |
| 5 | Dallas Wings | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Aces | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
Commissioner's Cup Championship Game: Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm (Dream won the regular season series 2-1)
With the unknown of the exact tie-breaking procedure in mind, I have the Storm getting the edge based on their record against the other 0.500 (or better) teams in the West. The Dream had a rough go in the postseason after Angel McCoughtry went down with a knee injury, so it would have been interesting to see how this theoretical game would have played out earlier in the season when she would have still been available.
2019
Eastern Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Mystics | 9 - 1 | 0.900 |
| 2 | Connecticut Sun | 8 - 2 | 0.800 |
| 3 | Chicago Sky | 6 - 4 | 0.600 |
| 4 | Indiana Fever | 4 - 6 | 0.400 |
| 5 | Atlanta Dream | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
| 6 | New York Liberty | 1 - 9 | 0.100 |
Western Conference
| Rank | Team | Commissioner's Cup Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Storm | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 2 | Las Vegas Aces | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Sparks | 7 - 3 | 0.700 |
| 4 | Minnesota Lynx | 5 - 5 | 0.500 |
| 5 | Dallas Wings | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 2 - 8 | 0.200 |
Commissioner's Cup Championship Game: Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm (Mystics won the regular season series 2-1)
I wouldn't have expected the Stewie-and-Sue-less Storm to lead the way here given they finished this season as the No. 6 seed overall and third in the Western Conference, but they started out strong enough against the other Western Conference teams and by my math I believe would have had the tiebreaker here based on point differential against the Aces and Sparks within the "cup" games. Again, I don't know what the exact tie-breaking procedure will be, so perhaps the Aces or Sparks would have come out on top.
2020 and beyond
Alright, I'll briefly touch on last year. It benefits from a completely balanced schedule but didn't feature any home-court advantages, but this all hypothetical anyway. The Connecticut Sun, despite their tough start, would have finished their Commissioner's Cup games 7-3, good for first in the Eastern Conference. In the Western Conference, the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm both finished their hypothetical cup games 8-2, but the Aces beat the Storm in both of their games, so the Commissioner's Cup Championship Game would have been a matchup of what eventually was a five-game Semifinals matchup between the Aces and Sun. The Aces won that series 3-2 after having also swept the Sun 2-0 in the regular season.
Looking forward, Cathy Engelbert recently mentioned in a conversation with AP's Doug Feinberg that she can see the Commissioner's Cup refueling some conference rivalries, and the money up for grabs is no small prize. With so many players in and out of the first half of the season with overseas commitments, it will be interesting to see both this year and in the future how teams handle these games. Do teams give special attention to any of these Commissioner's Cup games? Does this format favor teams who have their roster together to start the season, or in a non-Olympic year are enough players still in-market on time (and the schedule condensed to an even lesser extent) that it's a non-factor? How does the league build its schedule in a non-Olympic year to keep room for both an All Star Game and a Commissioner's Cup Championship Game?
We'll have to see how the format plays out after two or three years play out, so I'll have to come back to in the future. For now, enjoy Opening Day and the league's first four Commissioner's Cup games!
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